Everyday Killings in Mexico Drop Thirty-Seven Percent In the Sheinbaum Administration, Per Government Figures

The mean number of everyday murders monthly in the country has dropped by thirty-seven percent since President Claudia Sheinbaum took office, as stated by recent government statistics. Nevertheless, public safety analysts have cautioned that murder data may not indicate enhanced national security.

Marked Drop in Per-Day Averages

Officials reported an average of close to 55 homicides a day in the month of November versus nearly 87 when Sheinbaum assumed the presidency in September. This data was shared by the head of the country’s federal public security system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s regular news conference on a recent Tuesday.

“The result in killings that we have seen over these past months is remarkably significant,” the President stated, adding that the previous month the smallest amount of murders were recorded for any single November in the past decade.

Recent Background and Government Strategy

Fierce organized crime internal conflicts, alongside the administration's highly military operations to confront the cartels, have led to Mexico’s murder rate escalate in the past few years. The figure reached a maximum of 36,773 homicides in 2020, according to the nation's official data agency.

That gave Mexico a homicide figure more than 4x higher than that of the United States. Since then, murders have been on the downward trend, dropping to 33,550 the previous year. Claudia Sheinbaum has linked her public safety strategy for an seemingly steeper reduction in homicides in the current year.

At a press conference in the summer, the Mexican leader declared: “There is a plan, there is monitoring of the plan, and we have detailed monitoring town by town in certain cases. The strategy works. And we have to persist at it each day.”

The key components of Sheinbaum’s security strategy involve:

• Reinforcing Mexico’s national guard.
• Enhancing information gathering and investigative efforts.
• Greater cooperation between various departments.

Analyst Skepticism and Statistical Concerns

However, public safety analysts urged caution that focusing solely on murder data to draw a conclusion of improved security was problematic. This is especially true considering the increase in different crimes such as forced disappearances.

“This would be excellent information if this were a decrease, but I think we can’t just focus on the homicide data and think: ‘Well then, excellent,’” said Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an specialist on Mexican cartels. “I would be cautiously optimistic.”

Per the policy research thinktank Mexico Evalúa, murders overall fell by more than 20% in the first 10 months of the current year compared with the same timeframe last year. But, missing persons cases have increased by 15% and in certain states have increased by up to 200%.

“Numbers on homicides is no longer reliable for gauging the situation of violence,” argued Armando Vargas, a safety expert at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have law enforcement and investigators who do not have the ability or the inclination to correctly recognize and categorize corpses. Second, organized [criminals] … have the means to mask violence through abductions.”

Vargas noted that relying on month-to-month averages of everyday killings was similarly an issue because it might mask days when there were particularly elevated levels of killings.

“Employing the per-day average renders spikes of violence invisible,” he stated.

Detentions and Seizures as Metrics of Progress

Where the administration can point to the effectiveness of its security strategy is on detentions and confiscations. Close to 40,000 people were detained between October 2024 and November 2025 for serious offenses, according to government data. Over 20,000 weapons were taken and 311 tons of narcotics intercepted.

“The former US president can't accuse President Sheinbaum of inaction, because in reality she is doing a lot with these many thousands of detentions, thousands of seizures, and all the tactical degrading of criminal groups. It’s highly in political terms profitable,” stated Vargas.

Ongoing Violence and Public Frustration

Yet notwithstanding these measures, Mexico remains plagued by severe violence, with multiple regions in the midst of cartel-fueled violence. Recently there was a notable assassination of a popular local official in the state of Michoacan, among 10 local leaders killed in the past 12 months.

A short time later, thousands of protesters protested in the capital and throughout the nation to voice their anger at graft and cartel violence.

“The government frames [data] in a manner to build a narrative of safety. From a political standpoint it’s highly effective, socially it’s extremely questionable,” the analyst remarked.