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For a brief period, Trump appeared to adopt a strong approach on Ukraine. After delivering threats of "significant repercussions" during the summer in case Vladimir Putin persisted blocking truce negotiations, he finally introduced substantial restrictions on Russia's two largest energy firms, Lukoil and Rosneft. This move significantly hindered Putin's capability to fund his war effort in the region.

However, through his recently unveiled detailed peace plan for the conflict, which was drafted by American and Russian representatives lacking Ukrainian or EU participation, the former president has apparently gone back to his Russia-friendly stance.

Rewarding Invasion

The former president's initiative would effectively favor Putin for attacking Ukraine while placing the country's democracy in peril. Despite ringing statements that "Ukraine's sovereignty will be confirmed", large portions of the initiative in reality undermine that same sovereignty. What represents a Moscow's wish would certainly be a Ukrainian nightmare.

Demonstrating his business experience, the former president continues to view the Ukrainian conflict as a basic border issue, like ceding Russia a part of Ukraine's land will satisfy the leader. But, Russia's war is not only about occupying a destroyed swath of economically weakened land in eastern Ukraine. Rather, it is about Ukraine's democracy – and Putin's clear desire to destroy it so it ceases to acts as an enticing standard for the Russian people of the accountable leadership that Putin's deepening authoritarian rule denies them.

Territorial Surrenders

Although keeping in status the presently split oblasts of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, Trump's proposal would compel the nation to surrender the whole Donetsk province. Aside from favoring Russia with territory that its military have been unsuccessful to occupy in exceeding a ten years of warfare, this concession would render Ukrainian military defenses dangerously undermined.

Donetsk is the place of Ukraine's well-known "defensive line", the well-established military defenses that represent a key barrier to enemy progress. Trump would have Ukraine leave these defenses, providing Putin a clear path to the capital in case he eventually choose to renew the hostilities.

Armed Forces Restrictions

Furthermore, in a action that would make future hostilities more feasible for Russia, Trump would mandate Ukraine to reduce the scale of its armed forces from their existing approximately 800,000 troops to a maximum of 600,000. Significantly, Trump's initiative places no such restrictions on the invading army.

Apparently as a gesture to Russia's campaign to depict the nation's democratically elected government as extremists, Trump's plan states: "Any Nazi ideology and practices must be rejected and forbidden." As if to underscore this aspect, it insists that "Ukraine will hold elections in three months" of a peace deal. However, the proposal places no obligation that the Russian leader risk his regime by conducting elections in Russia.

Protection Guarantees

Admittedly, the initiative includes Russia commit not to "enter other states" and to "incorporate in law its policy of non-aggression towards Europe and Ukraine". Yet given that Putin has violated similar treaties in the past – including the 1994 Budapest memorandum, in which Russia pledged to honor the nation's sovereignty in exchange for relinquishing its historical nuclear arsenal, and the previous peace deals, in which Moscow promised to a ceasefire and a restoration of captured land in eastern Ukraine to Kyiv – why should anyone trust Russia on this occasion?

For this reason the Ukrainian government has been so insistent on western defense commitments. Although the plan promises a "decisive joint military response" if Russia resume its military campaign, and states that "The nation will receive strong security guarantees", the particulars range from unclear to alarming. The initiative would not only deny Ukraine accession to NATO but also prevent alliance nations from positioning troops on Ukraine's soil, thus blocking the security presence, likely headed by Britain and France, on which Ukraine had been counting to stop Russia from rebuilding his reduced military, rearming, and reinvading.

Global Concern

A separate supplementary accord according to sources would offer the nation with a Nato-style protection assurance, in which any later "major, intentional, and ongoing armed attack" by the Russian Federation on Ukraine "shall be regarded as an assault threatening the peace and security of the transatlantic community." This implies a military response. But in contrast to a powerful national defense – Ukraine's best protection against additional Russian aggression – the effectiveness of the side agreement would rely on the willingness of Western powers, including Trump, to respond through arms to Russia's aggression, an action they have {not